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Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance, a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin or again, by a conscious decision by the supplier in order to obtain economic benefits. The purpose of this article is to formulate a simplified version of the above issue that mainly addresses long-term uncertainties. The formulation is done via a version of the TIAM-WORLD Integrated Model, modified to implement the approach of robust optimization. In our case, the approach can be interpreted as a revival of chance-constrained programming under the name of distributionally robust, or ambiguous, chance-constrained programming. We apply the approach to improve the security of supply to the European Energy system. The resulting formulation provides several interesting features regarding the security of EU energy supply and has also the advantage to be numerically tractable.  相似文献   
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research - With the actual increasing interest for urban soils, the evaluation of soil contamination by trace elements and the dynamics of this contamination...  相似文献   
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The empirical literature reports conflicting findings on the relation between environmental policy and environmental innovation: environmental policy both encourages and impedes environmental innovation, resulting in competing theoretical explanations. To find a way out of this counterproductive debate requires new and complementary insights into the effects of different policy instruments. This research therefore advances an approach in which a set of specific policy instruments as well as firms’ behavior regarding CHP (cogeneration of heat and power) adoption are considered as two distinct factors explaining environmental innovation in the Dutch paper and board industry. Using a longitudinal research design, the focus was not on any single policy instrument but on the accumulation of policy instruments. In addition, we studied intra-organizational factors influencing the adoption decision.Overall, we can conclude that paper and board factories perceive governmental environmental policies to be relevant, but that this constitutes just one of the factors influencing adoption processes, next to intra-organizational factors. The relative importance of such policies varies over time and per adoption process. The role of top-down regulation appears to be limited, whereas interactive regulation turned out to be important for several factories in the latest period of adoption. Positive economic instruments were important in almost all adoption processes, but were not and will never be the most important reason for adoption. The most important reason for CHP adoption appears to be high energy prices in combination with cost price reduction or the threat of additional regulation. For future policies, we recommend the implementation of a specific mixture of policy instruments, attuned to the specific industry and reinforcing each other. Moreover, goals should be consistent over time to avoid risk-averse behavior.  相似文献   
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Models of prey choice in depleting patches predict an expanding specialist strategy: Animals should start as specialists on the most profitable prey and then at some point during patch exploitation switch to a generalist foraging strategy. When patch residence time is long, the switch to a generalist diet is predicted to occur earlier than when patch residence time is short. We tested these predictions under laboratory conditions using female parasitoids (Aphidius colemani) exploiting patches of mixed instars aphid hosts (Myzus persicae, L1 and L4). The duration of patch exploitation was manipulated by changing travel time between patches. As predicted, patch residence times increase with travel time between patches. Our results provide empirical support for the expanding specialist prediction: Parasitoid females specialized initially on the more profitable hosts (L4), and as the patch depleted, they switched to a generalist diet by accepting more frequently the less profitable hosts (L1). The point at which they switched from specialist to generalist occurred later when travel times and hence patch residence times were short. By affecting the patch exploitation strategy, travel time also determines the composition of hosts left behind, the “giving up composition.” The change in the relative density of remaining host types alters aphid populations’ age structure.  相似文献   
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We describe two cases of sonographic abnormalities associated with unusual chromosomal aberrations. Case 1 presented with a cystic hygroma at 12 weeks' gestation. Cytogenetic analysis revealed an unbalanced complex chromosome rearrangement implicating chromosomes 6, 13 and 21 (karyotype: 47,XX,t(6;21;14)(q14;q21;q21)mat,+21) and corresponding to a complete trisomy 21. This anomaly resulted from malsegregation of a maternal balanced three-way translocation. For case 2, an alobar holoprosencephaly was identified by ultrasonography at 23 weeks' gestation. Chromosomal analysis showed a recombinant rec (13), dup q chromosome, secondary to unequal crossing-over of a paternal pericentric inversion of chromosome 13, giving rise to partial trisomy 13q (karyotype: 46,XX,rec(13)dup(13q)inv(13)(p11q21)pat). These two cases illustrate the role of ultrasound in leading to detection not only of foetal chromosomal aberrations but also of rare balanced chromosomal rearrangements presented by one of the two parents. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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In industrial areas, tree leaves contaminated by metals and metalloids could constitute a secondary source of pollutants. In the present study, water extraction kinetics of inorganic elements (IE: Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Fe and Mn), dissolved organic carbon, pH and biological activity were studied for industrial contaminated poplar leaves. Moreover, the distribution of the IE through the size fractions of the associated top soil was measured. High quantities ofMn, Zn and As and polysaccharides were released in the solution from the strongly contaminated leaves. The kinetic of release varied with time and metal type. The solution pH decreased while dissolved organic contents increased with time after 30 days. Therefore, these contaminated leaves could constitute a source of more available organic metals and metalloids than the initial inorganic process particles. However, the distribution of the IE through the size fractions of the top soil suggested that a great part of the released IE was adsorbed, reducing in consequence their transfers and bioavailability. It's concluded that mobility/boioavailability and speciation of metals and metalloids released from the decomposition of polluted tree leaves depends on soil characteristics, pollutant type and litter composition, with consequences for environmental risk assessment.  相似文献   
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